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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 8211 6-23-
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11:59Dan Szymborski: Boom.12:00Dan Szymborski: First things first, our Electoral Brawllege busine s.12:01: 12:01: 12:01Dan Szymborski: Adams v. Adams!12:02Comment From Eminor3rdDo you ever visit Dragons games?
12:02Dan Szymborski: I do.12:02Comment From Rated RookieHow good can Anthony Rendon be? Like a ballplayer, I mean.12:02Dan Szymborski: Pretty darn good. He would likely have a peak that matches comfortably in to the middle of Jeff Kents career.12:03Comment From GuestAnthony Rendon is on pace for a 5.4 WAR seasonand nobody is talking about him.12:03Dan Szymborski: RATED ROOKIE JUST DID!12:03Comment From kevinthecomicPanik time in SF!!! Projections for Panik ROS?12:03Dan Szymborski: Search DSZymborski twitter Panik talked about his RoS over the past weekend.12:04Comment From Only Hugh Can Prevent Florist FriarsAre you as unclear about Alex Gordons succe s like me?12:04Dan Szymborski: Im unsure Im confused at this point. That last Four years or so is when people expected him to experience.12:04Comment From KrustyNed Yost says he is going w the hot submit LF. Even I learned the new hand theory is bunk, playing fantasy baseball. Can Yost really be this stupid? Oh, and note he might have said hes using a L/R platoon of Dyson & Maxwell, but presumably the player he deems is hot is going to get PAs vs same handed pitching.12:04Dan Szymborski: The new hand theory results in you getting the best team last week.12:05Comment From Marlins Main ManDoes Chris Young (mets) get released?12:05Dan Szymborski: Theyve been rumored to become given that. Obviously, i was told that they werent, but baseball teams always deny something is incorporated in the works until it actually happens.12:06Dan Szymborski: Anthopoulos is the best at this. Hell deny rumors that a specific trade is even being talked about and then the exact trade happens. WHAT A COINCIDENCE12:07Comment From Marlins Main Manis there any player that personifies the definition of a replacement level player in your thoughts?12:07Dan Szymborski: Endy Chavez.12:07Comment From MattHey Dan. Apart from Gattis, which catcher do you consider will hit probably the most homers ROS?12:07Dan Szymborski: Santana12:08Comment From BenWho do you like best (ROS) Cishek, Perkins, Soria?12:08Dan Szymborski: Probably Soria, hes been rocking it.12:09Comment From Captain Geech & The Shrimp Shack ShootersAlex Wood v Houston or Iwakuma v Boston?12:09Dan Szymborski: Probably Iwakuma12:10Comment From GuestAre we finally visiting a regre sion for Brad Miller?12:11Dan Szymborski: I certainly hate so. I hate when talented young players are struggling and I also hate when I look stupid!12:11Comment From DaveWhat are the ideas on Polanco to date in his first 12 games?12:11Dan Szymborski: Bad. A s.12:11Comment From Beam Me UpI dumped the vortex of suckitude a.k.a. Everth Cabrera for Shane Victorino, stashed Victorino within my DL slot, then picked up Kevin Gausman. Can one haz cookie?12:12Dan Szymborski: Gausmans just going swimming?12:12Comment From SandyDan, whats up with Kenley Jansen? His ERA is more than 2x his FIP, and his BABIP is .417. Is he only the unluckiest MFer in the majors, or perhaps is there something which the advanced metrics are mi sing?12:12Dan Szymborski: Non-pitchers getting used as pitchers have a historical BABIP within the . Jimmy Staten Jersey 330-.340 range, and so i wouldnt be worried about .417 being a falloff in ability.12:12Comment From BruceWhen a pitcher includes a 4 year career of not getting lefties out, and today one half a season of no significant splits. Could it be only the sample size? How long till we can say he earned some real change?12:13Dan Szymborski: Depends how many BF were talking about. Generic platoon split are generally more predictive than the usual players individual platoon splits before you circumvent 5 years.12:13Comment From Red SuxMookie BettsBoston OF a me s. ETA of arrival?12:14Dan Szymborski: Its gotta be soon. I think the Red Sox should throw in the towel and hes likely past any super-two worries.12:15Comment From GuestDo you think Neil Walker could produce at the same rate as before he continued the DL?12:15Dan Szymborski: He *can* however i think his true ability is much more his usual .760-.780 OPS range.12:15Comment From Eminor3rdWTF expires using the demo now? Arent nerfs/new weapons supposed to make alternate playstyles MORE appealing? GL + Tide Turner + either Eyelander or Claidh has become clearly the very best loadout. Youd onyl use sticky to camp, and in that position, you use Scottish Resistance. What is the idea?12:15Dan Szymborski: Shotgunning stickies is still effective, simply not as effective.12:16Dan Szymborski: The ramp-up isnt *that* extreme.12:16Dan Szymborski: Pyro got the bigger i sue the axtinguisher is always a downgrade from powerjack now.12:16Comment From MattDad Adams has to win on the account of getting old man strength at each point during their mutual lives.12:16Comment From RBestYour challenge: a song that captures the spirit of the World Cup. Go!12:16Dan Szymborski: Hmmm12:18Comment From KevinDan, as a non-fantasy player I recognize occasionally you will see a prospect I believe is nice that wont obtain a lot of writeup Jeromy Miles Jersey because they might not have great fantasy impact, but other than the K% whats the drawback on Michael Taylor (WAS)? Has he simply not done it long enough to produce more buzz?12:18Dan Szymborski: Thats part of it. The other area is hes just a little old for his league (and was a high-A repeater but still wasnt exactly dominating). I think he wont be taken truly seriously unle s he is doing this at AAA (and he ought to be promoted their ASAP)12:18Comment Of all the Tigers FanHow well can J.D. Martinez actually hit going forward? And just what do you consider the Tigers outfield looks like (or need to look like) once Dirks has returned from his rehab a signment?12:19Dan Szymborski: No. I think I get yearly J.D. Martinez questions after his first month. Hes a replacement-level guy, very easily could fit my prvious question.12:19Dan Szymborski: OK, 30 seconds to show down your speakers.12:19Dan Szymborski: (Found a song that I feel captures the planet Cup)12:19Comment From MatWould a trade involving Joc Pederson (and others) for David Price make sense for the Dodgers?12:20Dan Szymborski: It would. They havent made much of an effort to pay off the field for him and also at some point, theyre just wasting his time.12:20Comment From Billy the GoatGot right into a debate whether or not Tony Gwynn was a top 5 hitter in history. Im pretty confident the reply is no. But I proposed a different 5 best list of most decent human beings to play baseball: 1. Jackie Robinson 2. Roberto Clemente 3. Ted Williams 4. Gary Carter 5. Tony Gwynn. What do you think?12:20Dan Szymborski: Im uneasy ranking people as people. Theres a lot we dont learn about players privately.12:20: 12:21Comment From LarsAdrian Gonzalez just a .268 BABIP. Can we count on that to rise and approach his career .320 BABIP?12:21Dan Szymborski: Lazy answer likely.12:21Dan Szymborski: Full answer, allow me to open xbabip calculator!12:22Dan Szymborski: Career BABIP .320, career xBABIP .324.12:23Dan Szymborski: 2014 BABIP: .268, 2014 xBABIP .31112:23Comment From peiderpThinking concerning the Law/Cameron debate on Twitter how much, if at all, le s reliable are projections for players with little MLB track record?12:24Dan Szymborski: Projections are very valuable, but its always an error to limit your information. There are some things that scouts can easily see, but there are also things that projections can see.12:24Comment From MattDo the Dbacks have anyone who another team is actually going to trade for?12:24Dan Szymborski: Depends how willing they are to deal.12:25Dan Szymborski: Im unconvinced theyre likely to do much Towers and Gibson have been in job-saving mode.12:25Comment From Opti-mets-ticDespite their mysterious finances, can the Mets be buyers at the deadline considering they are only 5 games out of 1st place?12:26Dan Szymborski: I dont think its smart for them to be buyers. Stay the course. Its a sellers market better for a team to benefit from that then fight for a boobie prize that most teams can continue to see as a po sibility12:26Comment From VicDo you've any faith in Jose Peraza to experience 2b the coming year for Braves?12:27Dan Szymborski: He could get there, but its a little soon to get that exact considering that he *just* reached AA.12:27Comment From Eminor3rdGotten any calls concerning the Padres GM job?12:27Dan Szymborski: I hvae to check on my email. Given the rumor is theyre interested in Towers, it must mean they called about 8 billion others over the weekend to get at Towers.12:27Comment From MatAs nowadays the most complete team in baseball is _____?12:27Dan Szymborski: As12:28Comment From RickWhich of Hammel, Arrieta, Shark and Jackson can get traded from Chicago this summer?12:28Dan Szymborski: I think Hammel and Shark get traded.12:28Comment From JAMESWho can you take over the following Five years fantasy wise, miguel sano & kris bryant, a suming both of them are healthy and playing 3B. And why.12:28Dan Szymborski: Bryant. Mi sed year breaks the tie for me, even if he comes back healthy.12:28Comment From MattBetter pitcher ROS Kennedy or Kazmir?12:29Dan Szymborski: Kazmir, but theres always that blowup chance.12:29Comment From SamCan you recommend a good book on sabermetrics?12:29Dan Szymborski: The Book12:29Comment From MattDo you play Dota 2?12:29Dan Szymborski: No. Tinkered with it just a little, but found the tactical type of the sport somewhat bland.12:30Dan Szymborski: Too much of the game is not attacking and simply looking to get the last hit on creeps.12:30Dan Szymborski: Its like playing che s but only semi-slav positions.12:30Dan Szymborski: 1. d4 d52. c4 c63. Nf3 Nf64. Nc3 e612:30Comment From hittfamilyHow does playing time effect WAR. Is it fair to say a man who posts single.5 WAR in 300 PA is a 3 win player if given a complete time gig? Im looking for 2nd base options for the Braves, and Sean Rodriguez name keeps popping out in my experience.12:31Dan Szymborski: Well, it always depends. Is that 1.5 WAR above his projections? Below?12:31Comment From Gene AutryJosh Hamilton is flailing away at everything again, together with his power AWOL since he returned. Is that this the brand new norm? Josh or Springer ROS?12:31Dan Szymborski: Wait, was there a time Hamilton didnt flail away at everything? He does that even when hes good.12:32Comment From DanShould we trust Verlander now? Supposedly he fixed his mechanics.12:32Dan Szymborski: Gonna require more than 1 start to have trust in him again12:32Comment From VicDo you think shifts would ever be considered illegal defense like offsides in soccer?12:32Dan Szymborski: Probably not.12:32Comment From Orioles were the YankeesDo you believe Kevin Gausman will be recalled soon and finally stick within the rotation?12:33Dan Szymborski: First answer easy yes (since the plan ended up being to bring him up for this Fridays start)12:34Dan Szymborski: Second *ought* to become yes. Hes one of the Orioles best five starting pitchers right now.12:34Dan Szymborski: Theres nobody in the Os rotation at this time thats sufficiently good to make them un-movable to the pen for that rest fo the season.12:35Comment From VicMike Montgomery has a nice year at 3A. Is he a sleeper for the Rays rotation?12:35Dan Szymborski: He is. Andriese has looked solid too12:35Comment From SteveSomeone dropped Stroman within my league, must i use my priority waiver claim on him? Does he have top-40 SP potential this year?12:35Dan Szymborski: I love stroman, but top 40 SP this season is really a stretch from me12:36Comment From Rated RookieDallas Keuchels starts last week: command faltering a bit plus hitters not swinging at the borderline stuff quite as much?12:38Dan Szymborski: I didnt see Keuchels starts last week, however i think Sean Donnelly Jersey his reasonable upside is a 2/3 guy, no ace type. Hes simply walking a finer line.12:38Dan Szymborski: Pitchers can succeed having a fastball within the 80s, but its still harder.12:38Comment From SteveWhen do you consider we realistically see Bundy this year? Is he worth a roster stash?12:39Dan Szymborski: It depends when the Os are prepared to allow him to pitch in relief within the majors this season. If they are, he could bust through minors pretty quickly as the Os dont have a lot of depth in bullpen.12:39Comment From GsonThe Bumbling Tribe cant appear to catch the ball.. cant appear to throw the ball when does Tito stop chewing the bubble gum and rip someone a replacement?. Mention a defensive wizard to experience a predominantly defensive position?.12:40Dan Szymborski: One concern is that it appeared they were going to do that with Asdrubal for awhile, but hes having ab etter year and I dont think it happens while Indians still competing12:41Comment From SteveHow highly do you rate Joc Pederson? Think hell be an impact bat when hes called up or suffer from his high SO%?12:41Dan Szymborski: Strikeout rate will cap his BA a bit (see Springer), but hes so talented otherwise that you deal with it (see Springer)12:41Dan Szymborski: He also hasnt shown a repeat of his lousy vs. LHP stats from last year, also great news.12:42Dan Szymborski: I think he results in another organization to get that full-time job, because of the Dodgers situation.12:43Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers best outfield now's Kemp/Pederson/Puig, but I dont think they are fully aware it.12:44Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers really are a solid team, but they got there using the brute force of cash, the leading office isnt particularly creative.12:44Comment From Matt Wieters FactsUCL reconstruction will be referred to as Matt Wieters Surgery.12:44Comment From DavidJosh Harrison hits *meh* for an OF, but decently for a 2B. Does he get enough PT to be worth carrying ?12:45Dan Szymborski: I dont believe he does. Youve already gotten the very best offense hes likely to ever provide. Now the Pirates have to be more creative to obtain him into the lineup, but hes not likely to match that play to date.12:45Dan Szymborski: Unle s youre within an extremely deep league, he doesnt po se s a lot of fantasy value.12:46Comment From KrustyTouki Tou sant good baseball name?12:47Dan Szymborski: Indubitably!12:48Comment From GuestWhy isnt Trout stealing more? Can there be truth to the talk that Albert doesnt like it? But Trout stole much more last year hitting in front of him. And should Pujols at his current level be permitted to make a call like that?12:48Dan Szymborski: Its always hard to tell the true reason, but there's a really strong tendency for terribly talented overall players that steal bases at the start of their career to have their steals drop off fairly quickly12:49Dan Szymborski: What it comes down to is the fact that Trout doesnt need to steal many bases to be extremely valuable (or any really) and the increased injury risk may worry they. He was certain to steal fewer it doesn't matter how Pujols feels.12:50Comment From Danare you by Zips? Can we get a Chase Whitley or Bolsinger projection on twitter at some point? (I additionally have some AA/AAA guys to check out but would start with MLBers)12:50Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Whitley a minimum of is on my small to do list12:51Comment In the Oriole BirdFangraphs provides the Os a 31% po sibility of making playoffs (play-in game or better). Sound about to you?12:51Dan Szymborski: That smells like the right neighborhood.12:51Comment From GuestThis electoral brawllege is insane. I believe we all know Teddy Roosevelt would win hands downand its not even that close12:51Dan Szymborski: Andrew Jackson kills people just to watch them die.12:51Comment From GuestBest underrated follow on Twitter for baseball busine s info?12:52Dan Szymborski: Not a lot of guys *focus* on that12:52Dan Szymborski: Maury Brown and Darren Heitner both discu s a lot of sports busine s and law stuff generally.12:53Comment From derpremember the final time people thought Boston required to promote a hot-hitting outfield prospect to help their team out? He didnt turn out so excellent.12:53Dan Szymborski: Thats kind of gypsy curse reasoning.12:53Dan Szymborski: Betts isnt more prone to be disappointing simply because a chronological recent different human being that was disappointing to date played for the same organization12:54Comment From Lonnie B. Goodethoughts on the Byrnes firing? Right move?12:54Dan Szymborski: Smells deck-chair shuffling in my experience.12:54Comment From SunnySideUpDavid Price gets traded to ____ Deontae Skinner Jersey _______.12:54Dan Szymborski: ____FART EATERS_____12:56Dan Szymborski: Remember guys, all fill-in-the-blank questions, for the time being on, is going to be answered what sort of seven-year-old playing Mad Libs would. Fill-in-the-blanks are the Nickelback of the chat question world.12:56Dan Szymborski: Id love if your band named Power I announced they were the mortal enemies of Nickelback12:56Comment From JohnDoes Cole Hamels and/or Cliff Lee get traded? Id have to a sume Hamels is ridiculously frustrated at this point.12:57Dan Szymborski: Hamels doesnt. Lee might, however i dont have faith within the Phillies having a realistic view of their team.12:57Comment From SteveVHow much of a concern is Abreaus insufficient walks? What is the chance hes Reynolds long term?12:57Dan Szymborski: Mark Reynolds actually used to walk a great deal!12:58Dan Szymborski: I wouldnt worry an exce sive amount of about Abreu. Hell hit the way he's for the next 3 or 4 many then be a terrible Phillies signing as he hits free agency.12:58Comment From KyleZiPS has Jose Abreu hitting 37 HRs, how likely do you consider it is that he breaks 45 and pushes nearer to 50?12:59Dan Szymborski: Hes got a solid shot, for sure.1:00Comment From Marcus AHow would you decide to stop the players you project? I notice Chris Taylor doesnt po se s a projection despite being a top 10 organizational prospect and hitting well in Tacoma. I realize you have to draw the line somewhere, just wondering how you decide where.1:00Dan Szymborski: It was probably an error not to project him. Usually, my failsafe is people request players that I dont project and I get to them before the season.1:00Comment From person hscerdo you play che s online? We dont need to play Semi Slav, although I'm a 1 d4 guy1:00Dan Szymborski: In some places. Used to play more back when World Che s Network would be a thing.1:01Dan Szymborski: Im a 1. e4 guy and tend to experience caro-kann or dutch defense.1:01Comment From Rated RookieHow worrisome is Wachas stre s reaction in his shoulder?1:02Dan Szymborski: Very. Im petrified of something that puts pticher and shoulder in the same sentence.1:02Dan Szymborski: I wouldn't let my pitchers even eat pork shoulder, use head and shoulders shampoo, or give anybody a cold shoulder or perhaps a shoulder to weep on.1:02Comment From Dan_____ would be to ____ as ____ is to ______1:02Dan Szymborski: Poop is to diarrhea as butt would be to a s.1:03Comment From Mr FootballBrewers are still projected to play sub .500 ball ROS. Tell me projections are lagging about this team.1:03Dan Szymborski: They still smell .500ish in my experience. The good news is the fact that .500ish when you have a 5 1/2 game lead along with a 7 1/2 game lead on wild card spot 1, youre likely a playoff team1:04Comment From GuestMost informative, under-the-radar baseball follows on Twitter?1:05Dan Szymborski: Honestly, my favorite follows are entertaining baseball people, certainly not the most informative ones.1:05Comment From BradleyIndubitably! Did you discover word from 3 Stooges like I did?1:05Dan Szymborski: It was the fanciest word that curly knows!1:06Dan Szymborski: plus, its the start of homers song after the shary bobbins episode.1:06Dan Szymborski: Indubitably! Around the house, Irrrve never lift a finger. As a husband and father Im subpar. Id rather drink a beer than win father of the season! Im pleased with things the way they are.1:07Comment From YoggingCan we discu s Sean Doolittles 50:1 K:BB? Halfway to 100.1:07Dan Szymborski: Yeah, its crazy.1:08Dan Szymborski: Id like to see him play to have an NL team that convinces him hitting a little between games. Brooks Kieschnick was fun.1:08Dan Szymborski: Though I imagine As fans are happy with things they way they're.1:08Dan Szymborski: (See, tied it into previous answer, much like Mr. Show!)1:08Comment From Helpy HelpersonDan, been searching for much more about how OLIVER is made. Any idea where I'm able to go?1:08Dan Szymborski: Ask Cartwright.1:08Comment From MattDan Szymborskis favorite food is __________1:09Dan Szymborski: boobs?1:09Comment From jimis damages to correa serious. these astros seem to have a bright future, will this element in to the time that it requires to achieve succe s?1:10Dan Szymborski: It's serious, no doubt. But Ims till cautiously optimistic Personally i think better about broken bones than soft ti sue and hes very young.1:13Comment From person hscerdo you decide to go e6-f5, or f5 immediately? I've got a definite favorite move vs the latter. I still dont have a favorite reply w/black to e4, but when I feel comfortable vs the opp. It's my job to go Scandinavian1:15Dan Szymborski: It's my job to go to f5 right away. Youd be surprised the number of internet people will Staunton gambit it and go for the e4. Im comfortably using the much crappier reverse spanish that the main line after that gets white to.1:15Comment From YoggingLeast informative, under-the-radar follow in Twitter: @RealCarrotFacts1:15Comment From person hscerHave you found an athletes Twitter feed to not be entirely worthle s?1:15Dan Szymborski: McCarthy could be fun.1:16Dan Szymborski: But yeah, most athletes have boring twitter feeds.1:16Dan Szymborski: Because, lets be honest, terrible jokes are what make twitter fun.1:17Dan Szymborski: All it takes is one control pitcher writing Batters walk more infrequently against me than Christopher Reeve! before they get berated off Twitter and compelled to do the whole auto-da-fe ritual.1:17Comment From dbetNickleback may be the _____________ greatest band in the world.1:18Dan Szymborski: can is say shitballs on FanGraphs?1:18Comment From Gio GonzalezWhats my deal?1:19Dan Szymborski: 5 years, $42 million, IIRC1:19Comment From GarthokPujols or Rizzo ROS?1:19Dan Szymborski: Rizzo.1:20Comment From person hscerHow often do you see 1 d4 f5 2 Bg5 because thats what Ive started doing1:21Dan Szymborski: Once in a while. Ill happily go 2h6 3. Bh4 g5, blow open my kingside and 0-0-0 later.1:21Comment From MattWhat is to be made from Castros year to date? Appears like much more of a serious breakout as opposed to a mere comeback.1:22Dan Szymborski: Unsure Id call it a *breakout* yet, hes kinda where I figured he'd be after 2011-2012.1:22Comment From Pirates HurdlesIm I the only person waiting for Donald Gibb yelling Nerds!1:22Dan Szymborski: Youre at a FanGraphs chat.1:23Dan Szymborski: Its a location where I might randomly tell Bagman that he should be sterilized Robert Thomas Jersey and exiled with an ice floe for nominating plr_hightower.1:24Dan Szymborski: With that, time for you to log off for another week. Thanks for coming everybody! You can read my work at ESPN.com, chats at FG an these site sometimes, and DSzymborski on Twitter.1:25Comment From person hsceryou probably know to not try and trap the bishop for the reason that line ;p1:26Dan Szymborski: You aint gonna trap the bishop, but I *am* likely to waste your time.1:26Dan Szymborski: Err I aint1:27Dan Szymborski: I had been likely castling queenside anyway.1:27Dan Szymborski: I didnt want to play dutch stonewall anyway
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